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Forum:2017-18 South Pacific cyclone season
Betting pools for this page Related Pages: *2017-18 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season (Betting Pools) *2017-18 Australian Region cyclone season (Betting pools) December 98P.INVEST Say hello to (likely) the first invest of the SPac season. Low chance on JTWC, but not yet being mentioned at all on the RSMC Nadi outlook. ~ Steve Talk Page 01:14, December 3, 2017 (UTC) No longer on JTWC but still on Tropical Tidbits/NRL. ~ Steve Talk Page 01:54, December 5, 2017 (UTC) :No longer on Tropical Tidbits/NRL. ~ Steve Talk Page 02:42, December 6, 2017 (UTC) 02F.NONAME Tropical Disturbance 02F (91P.INVEST) New weak low near Samoa. Development is possible until Wednesday, when it encounters less favorable environmental conditions. ~ Steve �� Happy 04:04, December 17, 2017 (UTC) : Will it become the first storm of the season, Fehi? Stay tuned. Hi!- 08:02, December 17, 2017 (UTC) ::This disturbance shouldn't become Fehi. It's down to "low" chance for Tuesday according to RSMC Nadi, and won't develop beyond that day. ~ Steve �� Happy 06:23, December 18, 2017 (UTC) ::It's pretty much dead now. ~ Steve �� Happy 06:36, December 19, 2017 (UTC) 03F.NONAME Tropical Disturbance 03F Adjacent to 02F. Has a "moderate" chance of development for Tuesday, but downgrades to "low" after that (RSMC Nadi). Meanwhile, this is quoted from TCWC Wellington: OUTLOOK UNTIL 1200 UTC FRI 22-DEC-2017 Many other lows may form within the SPCZ, and the UK shows one low developing to the north of Fiji by early Friday and deepening to TC intensity from late Friday onwards, while moving to the southeast. UK shows this development under a diffluent region, ahead of an upper cut-off low/trough, and strengthening ridge aloft. EC shows the low slightly southwards under strong shear. EC ensemble shows 20-30% chance of TC development to the west of Fiji. Based on the difference between models, the chance of TC development to the north of Fiji from Friday onwards is LOW to MODERATE. SPac is starting to ramp up. Can we see Fehi by Christmas? ~ Steve �� Happy 06:23, December 18, 2017 (UTC) : Actually, this has moved into high shear. Extremely unlikely to become anything. ~ Steve �� Happy 06:36, December 19, 2017 (UTC) :: Yep, it's dead ~ Steve �� Happy 23:39, December 20, 2017 (UTC) 04F.NONAME Tropical Disturbance 04F North of Vanuatu, but hasn't been declared yet as of the time I wrote this. Low chance in the long run, but overall doubtful that it will be Fehi. ~ Steve �� Happy 23:39, December 20, 2017 (UTC) Tropical Depression 04F 30 mph/998 mbar. Fehi anyone? JoeBillyBob Tropical Disturbance 04F (2nd time) Actually Fehi is out of the question. Latest RSMC Nadi outlook downgrades it back to a disturbance, with a "low" chance for Christmas and beyond that it's "very low". ~ Steve �� Happy 06:25, December 24, 2017 (UTC) Still active, but pressure is now 1002 mbars. It won't develop anymore.~ Steve �� Happy 21:25, December 26, 2017 (UTC) January AOI: West-Southwest of Southern Cooks RSMC Nadi has a low pressure system up to the west-southwest of the Southern Cook Islands. They give it a "low" chance throughout the next 3 days. Doubtful if this will become much however. ~ Steve �� 2018 06:41, January 3, 2018 (UTC) No longer mentioned. ~ Steve �� 2018 06:55, January 5, 2018 (UTC) General deadness Something wrong with this basin this season? Even 2016-17 and 2011-12 had more disturbances by mid-January, and those were the two least active SPac TC seasons on record. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:30, January 16, 2018 (UTC) 05F.NONAME Tropical Disturbance 05F Up as an invest, and code orange on JTWC. Hopefully this finally becomes the first named storm of this season. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:48, January 26, 2018 (UTC) Actually,this is still inport moresby's area of responsibility.JoeBillyBob (talk) 16:49, January 26, 2018 (UTC) :No it's not. None of Port Moresby's area of responsibility is located in the SPac basin, and this is in the SPac basin, not Aus. [[User:TornadoGenius|'T']][[User talk:TornadoGenius|'G']] 2'0'1'8' 17:04, January 27, 2018 (UTC) Hmm... I wonder if this is actually 94P, up as code red on JTWC way out near French Polynesia? Wikipedia claims that the system below (06F) is actually 05F, but we all know Wiki is not official (RSMC Nadi is). ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 06:04, January 28, 2018 (UTC) : Actually, Wiki now shows this as a short-lived disturbance in the same region that Fehi developed in. I wonder if RSMC Nadi changed the storm's designation? I'd be surprised if this was actually completely separate from Fehi, because Wiki says this lasted from the 26th to the 27th which is at the same time Fehi might have been starting to develop in that area. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 06:14, January 29, 2018 (UTC) ::I'm very confused too. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:40, January 29, 2018 (UTC) ::: The track map for Fehi is uploaded on Wikipedia, and it seemed to originate in or near TCWC Port Moresby's area of responsibility before moving into this basin, while 05F was short-lived northwest of New Caledonia. This says that Fehi was in the same region (south of Solomon Islands, aka northwest of New Caledonia) on January 27, at the same time that "05F" was active in the same exact region. It's all probably the same system, unless 05F was another brief short-lived system that instantly merged with the developing Fehi due to extreme proximity. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 06:37, February 2, 2018 (UTC) 06F.FEHI Tropical Disturbance 06F RSMC Nadi seems to have this system, located west of Vanuatu, up as Tropical Disturbance 06F, not 05F. However, Wikipedia says this is 05F. Since RSMC Nadi is official, I might as well put up the header... So much confusion. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 06:04, January 28, 2018 (UTC) :Someone has already edited the Wikipedia page. This is a different system from 05F. 06F may become Fehi soon; it's already a TS on the SSHWS. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:00, January 28, 2018 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Fehi It has been named, first of the year! Not expected to intensify much though, and if anything, it will likely just weaken from here on out before restrengthening as an extratropical system. I would be surprised if 05F was actually completely separate from Fehi (see my comment in 05F's section for the reason why, and 05F's track map and duration on Wikipedia). ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 06:14, January 29, 2018 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Fehi a weak failica.No.1 Mobile (talk) 01:45, February 1, 2018 (UTC) 94P.INVEST I mentioned this system in 05F's section, but this was an unusual system near French Polynesia that had a TCFA issued by JTWC. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 06:14, January 29, 2018 (UTC) 95P.INVEST Up on Tropical Tidbits and NRL as a system southwest of Tonga. It's doubtful if this will develop though. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 06:14, January 29, 2018 (UTC) Now code yellow on JTWC.No.1 Mobile (talk) 01:47, February 1, 2018 (UTC) Dead...No.1 Mobile (talk) 13:37, February 1, 2018 (UTC) February 07F.NONAME 97P.INVEST Another one, located west of Vanuatu and south of the Solomon Islands. Currently only found on Tropical Tidbits and NRL for the time being. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 06:26, February 2, 2018 (UTC) Tropical Disturbance 07F Now over Vanuatu, and has been designated "07F". ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 21:41, February 3, 2018 (UTC) Now has a "Moderate to High" chance for friday.No.1 Mobile (talk) 01:46, February 7, 2018 (UTC) : Currently located northwest of Fiji. This is likely to become Gita. Code orange on JTWC, and a "High" chance for Friday and Saturday. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 01:13, February 8, 2018 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Gita Yay!No.1 Mobile (talk) 13:19, February 9, 2018 (UTC) 08F.NONAME Tropical Disturbance 08F (98P.INVEST) Currently over Fiji. It has been designated "08F". ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 21:41, February 3, 2018 (UTC) Tropical Depression 08F Upgraded to a tropical depression. Currently located southeast of Fiji and southeast of the above system. This is unlikely to develop further though. Code yellow on JTWC, and RSMC Nadi is also unenthusiastic about it. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 01:13, February 8, 2018 (UTC) Up to code orange on JTWC,and has a "low" chance on RSMC Nadi.No.1 Mobile (talk) 13:19, February 9, 2018 (UTC)